In spring, the air temperature rises, and the flu virus appears less and less. This is good, but what about other viruses?
As air temperature rises, will the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the root of the 2019 COVID-19 disease, be affected?
Unfortunately, no one knows for sure, and even experts cannot agree on whether the warm weather will slow the spread of coronavirus.
Seasonality and Coronavirus
According to a new article in National Geographic magazine, viruses that cause the flu or milder coronaviruses (there are only seven of them, and some are significantly weaker than others) often disappear in the warmer months due to "seasonality" - a predictable rise and fall depending on the time of year.
This seasonality is also associated with the response of viruses to heat and humidity, as well as the fact that when the temperature rises, people spend less time inside where viruses spread more easily.
However, since SARS-CoV-2 is relatively new, it is not possible to tell with certainty whether the virus will have seasonality like other viruses.
Pessimistic forecasts
Maciej F. Boni, an associate professor of biology at the University of Pennsylvania, believes that there is one big difference between the new coronavirus and the flu - it is related to immunity. Although many of us have developed immunity to the flu, the same cannot be said for the new virus. People have not seen one before, and therefore the immune system is unfamiliar with SARS-CoV-2.
According to David N. Fisman, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Toronto, the idea that the virus will decline in the summer and will never return is an attempt to wishful thinking.
Optimistic forecasts
Some experts are clearly more optimistic. According to Jeremy Brown, MD, director of the Department of Emergency Medicine at the US National Institutes of Health, the new COVID-19 virus, like the flu, will not survive at higher temperatures.
What happened to the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) viruses?
To better understand the outbreak of coronavirus, scientists look at similar outbreaks such as SARS and MERS.
SARS, which began spreading in late 2002, is nearly 90 percent similar in DNA to the current virus. The outbreak of SARS began in November and continued until July, indicating the seasonality of the virus. However, controlling the spread of the virus could be the result of early intervention. Therefore, it is not clear - the spread has stopped due to warmer weather or due to treatment and prevention.
The MERS outbreak began in September 2012 in Saudi Arabia, where the temperature is usually high. Unlike SARS, the outbreak of this virus was not properly contained, so today you can also hear about new cases of infection.
What new research shows?
Some new studies, in particular, an early analysis by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, showed that most cases of coronavirus were reported in areas with lower temperatures (between 3 and 17 degrees Celsius).
Conversely, although cases of coronavirus infection were reported in countries in the southern hemisphere, in regions with temperatures above 17 degrees Celsius there were an average of 6% fewer cases when compared with all other countries. For example, in Australia, the UAE, Qatar, Singapore, Bahrain, and Taiwan, the number of positive tests for a new coronavirus per capita is lower compared to several European countries and the United States.
But it is not exactly
The work, published on April 7 by the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NAS), clarifies little. According to experts, there is some evidence confirming a decrease in cases of viral diseases in a warmer and wetter climate, but each study has its drawbacks.
Conclusion:
NAS experts believe that many factors, in addition to weather and humidity, can play a role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from person to person. They noted that additional studies of the current pandemic could shed light on the impact of climate on the spread of the virus.
Bottom line: no one knows exactly how COVID-19 will react to a rise in temperature. This means that you should definitely not start to relax if it gets warmer on the street.
Experts advise everyone to continue to follow preventative measures, which include: avoiding close contact with sick people, maintaining a distance of 2 meters from other people, cleaning and disinfection of things and surfaces, and washing your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after visiting the toilet and before eating.
However, as the situation around COVID-19 continues to evolve, it is possible that some data will change soon.
No comments:
Post a Comment